Posnanski on Gordon

The Alex Gordon conversation carries on, Posnanski style.

I had a brief but long email exchange with Joe Posnanski where I asked for his thoughts on Alex Gordon in light of what Trey Hillman said after his call-up. Then we got to comparing WAR between Alex Gordon and Billy Butler. Fun stuff! Thanks to devil_fingers for the WAR discussion idea.

Collin: Quick question, Joe: You wrote in your Disco Hayes article for the Star that, while in Omaha, Alex Gordon seemed like a guy hanging his head. Meanwhile Trey Hillman said on the 610 post game show last night (9/8) that Gordon, contrary to what he'd "caught wind of" had a great attitude and his work ethic was "through the roof" according to the Omaha manager. Is it possible you caught Gordon on a bad day or do you think Hillman is lying about the emotional health of his player? Thanks, love the blog.

Joe Posnanski: Thanks for the email. Certainly it's possible I caught Alex on a bad day. But ... it was a really bad day. And I heard from several people around that club that it was typical of Alex since he had been sent down. And I heard the same from a couple of people who were scouting. His body language just isn't great.

Obviously ... it's just body language. And it's just an observation. Maybe Alex did have a great attitude in important ways that came through for Mike Jirschele down in Omaha. I hope so. He showed some good things in his first couple of seasons, and I think it would be great for him and for the Royals if he can rebound from this lost year.

Thanks again and all the best.

Collin: Joe, I appreciate your perspective. Trey Hillman didn't comment on Alex's body language, he simply said his work ethic was through the roof. So I guess he didn't argue against slouching shoulders and barking at umpires, as you've observed.

I take everything that comes from Trey Hillman's mouth with a grain of salt -- he has to keep a good working relationship with his players, I suppose. But I really do appreciate your perspective and your thoughts on the matter. I agree that the Royals could really use a productive Alex Gordon. And not to get off on a tangent, but devil_fingers pointed out to me that Alex Gordon was actually a 2.6 WAR player last year, and even a 2.1 WAR player in 2007 ... where as Billy Butler is just now getting to the 2.0 WAR level right now, even with his great offensive season. I'd take a 2.6 WAR season from Alex every year and be very happy with that. Would you take a 2.6 WAR Alex and be happy? Or would that be "patchy*"?

*quoted from Posnanski's Disco Hayes article

(then I go on to say nice things about his books and columns... all honest things but not pertinent to this post)

Joe Posnanski: Sure, if you would like to use my comments, that's fine.

As for the difference in WAR ... I think Devil Fingers is right in that WAR put in perspective that Gordon was better in many ways than people (including me) have suggested. But, let's not kid anybody: They were still patchy seasons. His rookie year he was all but useless for half a season -- I think (in retrospect) the Royals did him a disservice by rushing him to the big leagues and then letting him drown for three months. His positive WAR that year was based almost entirely on his position and his defense -- he was well below even third base average with the bat.

His second year, his defense took a significant step backward (so much so that several people in the game told me that he might have to move off third). And as of late June, he wasn't hitting much either. But on the positive side he did have a good final two months, and he showed real plate discipline for the first time, and I believed that this would be a breakout year for him. The injuries have prevented that from happening.

As for comparing him to Butler, I think their Wins Against Replacement is interesting but slightly misleading -- the fact they are close in WAR is almost entirely based on positional value. Butler is a far superior hitter to Gordon, but he's also a defensive challenged first baseman. And so he has to hit a TON in order to really be worth a lot more than a first base replacement. The thing is, he has given evidence this year (especially in the second half) that he will hit a ton.

Alex, meanwhile, has been inconsistent enough with the glove to make people wonder if he's a third baseman, and inconsistent enough with the bat to make people wonder if he can hit enough to help you at first or as a corner outfielder. Three years in, and I'm not sure anyone knows what Alex's role will be. If he can stay on third and hit well enough to give a team 2-3 WAR, that's fine. But it also makes him significantly less valuable than Ryan Zimmerman, who was the other third baseman the Royals were considering in that draft. It makes him about as valuable as Casey Blake, who was waived three times before finally hooking on with Cleveland. I think the Royals were hoping for a lot more.

So there you have it. Thanks again to Joe and to devil_fingers for their comments and thoughts.

Perception vs Reality

Last week Joe Posnanski wrote an article for the Star about Chris Disco Hayes. Poz has been down on the Royals for over a month now as his optimism was drained by a slew of terrible Royals losses and front office decisions. I'm sure most invested Royals fans could and can relate. In the opening paragraphs of that article Poz dropped a little side note on Alex Gordon:

In Omaha, I watch Alex Gordon mope his way through a Class AAA game. Gordon, of course, was the second pick in the 2005 amateur draft, the can’t-miss prospect, the Midwestern kid with the George Brett swing and the swagger in his walk. Now, after two patchy big-leagues seasons and a third scarred by injuries and strikeouts, he’s here in Omaha, barking at umpires seemingly after every pitch, walking with his shoulders slumped, looking for all the world like someone who has been wronged by life.

I believe(d) Posnanski when he wrote that. I figured Alex was upset at his frustrating season and the way the Royals have handled him, especially this year. I didn't like the implications, however, on Gordon's character. Obviously those words don't portray him in a positive light.

(thanks to devil_fingers for pointing out that last year Gordon was a 2.6 WAR player and 2.1 WAR player in 2007. This year, Billy Butler has been a 1.9 WAR player so far. I say this only to bring into question Poz's description of Gordon's career as "two patchy seasons"... maybe Poz has a point if he's talking about hype and potential, but not so much if he's talking about actual value.)

Yesterday Gordon rejoined the Royals and I was curious if the media would ask about him at all. I didn't hear it myself but apparently Manager Trey Hillman commented on Alex Gordon during last night's post-game show on 610 Sports Radio (thanks RaulDuke):

It’s great to see Alex back. He made the most of his time in Omaha and his work ethic and attitude were off the charts. I caught wind of something that was written (Pos) that said his body language was bad so I asked (Triple-A manager) Mike Jirschele and he told me nothing could be further from the truth. A message to Royals fans, don’t believe everything you read.

I really want to believe Hillman on this one. I do. Perhaps Poz is so down on the Royals that his eyes will see what they want to see. Perhaps Gordon was having a bad game when Poz attended. I'm sure it's possible. Gordon did have a batting average over .300 and an OBP over .400 while in Omaha... so the numbers don't show someone who was totally down on life.

On the other hand, Hillman has a history of lying to the media when it comes to his players physical health... so why wouldn't he lie about their emotional health? I can see no reason why Hillman would lie about this sort of thing but I also didn't see a need to lie about Soria's arm a few months ago.

Gordon didn't play last night in his first game back with the Royals and some on the message boards mocked what Hillman said about Gordon needing rest after lots of travel. But it's been fairly standard that players don't play their first day with the club. Gordon should get penciled in tonight and we can all speculate on his future after the season is over and he's played in 20-something more games.

But the most important indication of Gordon's future might be during the off-season when he'll have the chance to file a grievance with the Royals to get back his year of team control. He's being professional about it right now by not making a big stink out of the situation, according to Sam Mellinger at Ball Star. Hopefully it stays that way, even if a grievance is filed. But Gordon will certainly have the opportunity to make the situation sticky, similar to JJ Hardy. If that happens then maybe Poz was right and we have a lot to worry about regarding Gordon's character and subsequently his longevity in a Royals uniform.

However, if Gordon and his agent keep it quiet this off-season, regardless of winning (or even filing) their grievance, I'll take Hillman's word and feel better about the future of this team and trusty No 4.

Alex Gordon's Chip

Aside from Billy Butler crushing 2 HRs off of RHP yesterday, there hasn't been good news around the Royals offense in... well... since April. This blog has taken a beating and so has my checking account as I continue to pay for mlb.tv even though I can't stand to watch the Royals any more.

But today Alex Gordon was recalled upon the completion of the O-Royals season. Word on the street is that Gordon wasn't happy in Omaha (really???) and RoyalsAuthority is even saying that trusty No. 4 might be better off with a new organization come this off-season. I feel Alex's pain... this organization hasn't handled him well. He was rushed back from his hip surgery to play in meaningless July games and then, when he didn't play well (surprised?) he was sent to Omaha -- just two seasons too late to save his confidence lost in the horrid 2007 debut.

But after hitting for a decent average and maintaining a .400 OBP in Omaha, I'm still holding out hope that Gordon will figure it out in the big leagues with the Royals. They have him under team control through 2013, when he'll be in his age 29 season.

I know hope is thin among Royals fans right now. Even I found myself nodding in agreement with RoyalsAuthority at the "new organization" talk. But Gordon is coming off a major injury and three full seasons of frustration. I'm willing to give him another shot next year.

Can he turn all this frustration into 30 HRs? Can he take out his anger by scoring 100 runs? Can he prove all the doubters wrong by sporting a .280/.400/.480 slash line?

I think Alex Gordon still has it in him. He's been mishandled by the Royals front office and has fallen from a can't miss prospect who swept all the player of the year awards to just another player we all wish was better. Those down on Alex right now see his numbers, see his attitude in Omaha and conclude he's done. But more than a few men have developed a chip on their shoulder and returned with a vengeance to claim sports glory.

If Alex is to do the same, he needs to harness his immense potential and use it to vent his mounting frustration. I think that's exactly what we'll see in 2010.