Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Alex Gordon Update

Alex Gordon's line to this point is .214/.365/.286. These numbers are disappointing, for sure. His main accomplishments so far this season are hitting a HR in his first AB and just now getting his batting average over the Mendoza line again. But the numbers look a little more promising when you consider the start Alex got off to this year.

Prior to surgery, Gordon hit .095/.269/.238. Since his return he's posted a line of .333/.462/.333 with 5 walks and only 2 strike outs in 7 games. Right now he's a singles and walks machine, but could this be a good sign for Royals fans?

For the first time in his major league career, Gordon appears to be letting the game come to him. Sure it's a small sample size and one could be worried by his lack of power. But the seven game stretch Gordon's put together since the All-Star break could be a sign that his attitude is changing.

Maybe it's the fact there is no pressure on Gordon - most fans are resigned to the fact that he'll be an average player for the Royals - or maybe the extended DL stint gave Gordon time to clear his head. Either way, when he rehabbed in Double-A (and Triple-A for one game) he absolutely crushed the ball like it was 2006. Now, as noted above, he's getting on base almost half of his PAs. He's not pressing. He's not trying to live up to anything.

Perhaps all the expectations have blown over and now it's time for Gordon to be Gordon.

Thursday, July 23, 2009

Taking Responsibility

Since May 7, the Royals are 19-46. That's winning 29% of their games and equals a 47-115 record over the course of a full season. If the Royals stay on this pace they will go 57-105 and will lose 48 MORE games this year. To avoid a 100-loss season, the Royals must go 26-42 over the remaining 68 games -- a seemingly out of reach winning percentage of .420.

The Royals are scoring 3.95 runs per game. The average American League team (including the Royals and Mariners) scores almost one run MORE per game (4.79). After the Royals and Mariners, the lowest runs/game average belongs to the Athletics who score 4.39/game.

Last year the Royals bullpen was a strength. The bullpen gave up fewer runs than the starters:

2008 Runs/Inning (Avg/9innings)
7th - .60 (5.44)
8th - .53 (4.78)
9th - .35 (3.18)

This year the bullpen, Soria aside, has been an utter disaster in the 8th inning:

2009 Runs/Inning (Avg/9innings)
7th - .57 (5.17)
8th - .79 (7.09) (!!!)
9th - .35 (3.18)

Where's Ramon Ramirez? Oh yeah, he's sitting at home in the form of Coco Crisp. Well then, where's Juan Cruz? Oh... right. Need I even mention Farnsworthless or John Bale or Ron Mahay?

The Royals have just 11 players who are accurately (or under) paid, and one of them is Sidney Ponson. This means they have 14 (!) players who aren't worth the money being paid to them. Five (!!!) of them have negative value: Jose Guillen (-$7.3M), Jamey Wright (-$1.0M), Mike Jacobs (-$0.7M), Yuniesky Betancourt (-$0.5M) and Juan Cruz (-$0.1M).

The current roster has Willie Bloomquist in CF, Yuniesky Betancourt at SS, Miguel Olivo at C, Jose Guillen in RF, and Mike Jacobs at DH and their average career OBP is .306 and a combined 'value' of -$2.9M.

Contrast that with Alex Gordon, who has 5 hits in 41 at bats, and is still worth $0.6M, which means he's already paid for himself.

All of this is to say that the Royals are a dreadful team. The off-season moves backfired (except for Greinke) and the budget increase that David Glass willingly gave Dayton Moore will likely result in a near 100-loss season. Fans from all demographics, basements and penthouses alike, know this season is a failure. All stats, from W-L records to Value calculators, show this season is a lost cause and a waste of time.

The disappointment of a failed (re(re(re(re))))rebuilding effort seeps through every Royals fan -- from Rany and Joe Posnanski to the season ticket holders who now have extra money free in next year's budget.

Even Jose Guillen has been quoted as saying he sucks and is overpaid. Jose Guillen! When Jose Guillen is taking responsibility for himself, you know it must be blatantly obvious.

And finally Dayton Moore took responsibility and owned up to this disaster he created:

“You get a good group of people together. You work hard together. You trust in one another. You go through the difficult times. You work hard to make good decisions. You keep guys together and, eventually, it will happen.”

wait...

"I’m not abandoning the process. I believe in the process."

but I...

"We’re going to keep the group we have, and we’re going to work. That’s the only way I know how to do it. It might not be the right way, but it’s the only way I know how to do it.”

now hold on...

“Our processes are good. Our processes are consistent. We’re not right all of the time, but the effort is there, the passion is there and we will get this thing done without a doubt in my mind as we move forward. I believe that with all of my heart.”

Ok... so he hasn't actually taken responsibility for anything. He's confident the process he's in the midst of is 'good' and 'consistent'. He thinks the players we have now are good enough... to... well, who knows what they're good enough for. Dammit, they're just plain good enough.

Perhaps he's right. But we're getting to the point where it seems last year's team that battled to 75 wins might be the peak of the Dayton Moore era. 2010 looks bleak -- there is almost no payroll coming off the books and there is almost no help waiting in the minors. It appears the team will essentially be unchanged next year.

So maybe Dayton Moore is right. Maybe all the talent the Royals need to succeed is already at the Major League level. Maybe next year will be different -- better. Dayton Moore seems to think so. Dayton Moore is pinning his job and reputation on that 'maybe'.

But a team that goes 19-46 and has so many cement blocks tied to it's feet rarely resurfaces. It's possible... maybe.

But it's absolutely not possible when the man in charge has no idea he's even under water, much less weighted down with concrete. The only way he resurfaces is by shedding the concrete and hoping he has enough air to make it back up.

I think it's too late.

Friday, July 10, 2009

Gems from the Booth

Normally prefer your diamond gems to come on the field, but the Royals have one of the best tandems of announcers in Ryan Lefebver and Frank White. This past week or so they have had two amazing instances of phraseology. They must be highlighted.

The first came against Detroit. I don't remember what the topic was, and what Frank White said offers no clue as to any sort of context. I'm working from memory here, but I believe Frank's exact words were, "You gotta learn to walk before you can fall down. What's that saying? You gotta learn to crawl to walk. If you wanna run..."

Beautiful, I love it. Made the game worth watching.

The second came courtesy of our man Lefebvre. Last night a Red Sox ball girl took one on the chin and Ryan explained that, "Rule Number 1: keep the ball off your lips."

Sounds like Ryan's life isn't as spicy as it could be.

The Royals might be struggling but the comedy duo of White and Lefebvre keep rolling out the laughs. They're the Abbot and Costello of the Fox Sports Network.

Betancourt is Better than Nothing

The Royals announced just minutes ago they have traded two pitching prospects for Mariners SS Yuniesky Betancourt. My first reaction to the news was disbelief. I came across the headline on the KC Star website while looking for info on another blog post I'm working on. My second thought was that the Royals traded away someone important for YB. This is what really scared me.

As recently as last year there were rumors that GMDM was willing to trade Billy Butler for the Mariner's short stop. Gulp. After a few seconds I clicked on the link and found it was the above mentioned pitchers. Cortes was the Royals minor league pitcher of the year last year and Saito was a 2008 draft pick who the Royals lured with a large signing bonus. Cortes apparently became expendable this year when his walks went way up and his strikeouts dropped off. Saito was just a throw in, but still it doesn't make sense to trade someone after giving them a huge signing bonus last year... why even draft him (if you're going to trade him for a terrible short stop)?

Just yesterday I was checking out the Royals minor leaguers and came across the amazing season that SS Jeff Bianchi, 22, is having: .317/.378/.444. Those numbers are split between a pitcher's league (Hi-A Wilmington) and a hitter's league (Double-A NW Arkansas). In my mind it seemed he was on track to hit the majors next season if he held up in Triple-A. I was excited to see if Bianchi could contribute. The Royals also had Mike Aviles undergo career-threatening Tommy John surgery on his elbow. Aviles personally plans on being ready for Spring Training in 2010, but the reality is he probably won't be ready until some time after the season starts. A healthy Aviles, who plays average to good defense and hits line drives all over the field, could be a factor next year, too.

My point is that the Royals were screwed at SS for this year... no doubt (TPJ and an overachieving Bloomquist). But next year seemed to be looking better. Aviles would hopefully be healthy and Bianchi could come in by June if Aviles slumped. Or, the Royals could pursue a free agent SS this off season, most notably Marco Scutaro, who plays solid defense and draws a ton of walks. 2010 had a lot of bright possibilities. But that was yesterday.

Today the Royals have a SS in Betancourt who is under contract for two more years after this season. Betancourt never walks (think somewhere between Olivo and Jacobs) and has been declining on defense for the last few years now (think Alexi Ramirez but fat). Bloggers in Seattle say Betancourt is lazy and has no work ethic. You're sold, right?

My goodness. What in the heck is GMDM thinking? I can give him a pass for trading the guys he traded away. Maybe he knows something about Cortes that makes him more expendable than he appears to the fan base. Saito was probably going to be a LOOGY (left-handed bullpen specialist) if he developed, so he probably didn't have a path to the majors with the anti-LOOGY Hillman managing the team. But Betancourt is a bad short stop. He can't hit well and can't field well. He's not a character guy or a grit guy. I can't see any reason why GMDM would want him on his team.

Yuniesky Betancourt is a better alternative than simply not playing a short stop on defense. That's about the nicest thing I can think to say about him.

What on God's green earth was Dayton Moore thinking?

Thursday, July 2, 2009

Say It Aint So

Hot off the "presses" is this new post from Rany. It seems that Rany has been "blacklisted" by the Royals (who knows what that means?) for his post about firing Royals trainer Nick Swartz.

Here are a few quotes:

Criticize a player, liken the manager’s intelligence with that of a farm animal, call for the GM’s head: these are all acceptable things. But suggest that the trainer might need to be upgraded after 19 years – well, that’s beyond the pale.


and
If you’ve got a problem with something I wrote, by all means, contact me – I’m not hard to get ahold of. I’m a big boy; I can handle it.

and
Stop worrying about the criticism that you’re getting from people like me – what, are you guys going to ban Posnanski now too? – and start looking at your organization with a critical eye yourselves. The defining hallmark of good organizations is that they are more critical of themselves than any outsider would be. And God knows there’s an awful lot to be critical about.

***

Obviously this is not a good move by the Royals. Rany's blog has grown in KC popularity over the last few years and he has a national audience through Baseball Prospectus and a friend with a large national following at ESPN named Rob Neyer.

I hope the PR people at Kauffman Stadium are ready to do some serious damage control. Once this gets around they'll be publicly lashed.