Posnanski on Gordon

The Alex Gordon conversation carries on, Posnanski style.

I had a brief but long email exchange with Joe Posnanski where I asked for his thoughts on Alex Gordon in light of what Trey Hillman said after his call-up. Then we got to comparing WAR between Alex Gordon and Billy Butler. Fun stuff! Thanks to devil_fingers for the WAR discussion idea.

Collin: Quick question, Joe: You wrote in your Disco Hayes article for the Star that, while in Omaha, Alex Gordon seemed like a guy hanging his head. Meanwhile Trey Hillman said on the 610 post game show last night (9/8) that Gordon, contrary to what he'd "caught wind of" had a great attitude and his work ethic was "through the roof" according to the Omaha manager. Is it possible you caught Gordon on a bad day or do you think Hillman is lying about the emotional health of his player? Thanks, love the blog.

Joe Posnanski: Thanks for the email. Certainly it's possible I caught Alex on a bad day. But ... it was a really bad day. And I heard from several people around that club that it was typical of Alex since he had been sent down. And I heard the same from a couple of people who were scouting. His body language just isn't great.

Obviously ... it's just body language. And it's just an observation. Maybe Alex did have a great attitude in important ways that came through for Mike Jirschele down in Omaha. I hope so. He showed some good things in his first couple of seasons, and I think it would be great for him and for the Royals if he can rebound from this lost year.

Thanks again and all the best.

Collin: Joe, I appreciate your perspective. Trey Hillman didn't comment on Alex's body language, he simply said his work ethic was through the roof. So I guess he didn't argue against slouching shoulders and barking at umpires, as you've observed.

I take everything that comes from Trey Hillman's mouth with a grain of salt -- he has to keep a good working relationship with his players, I suppose. But I really do appreciate your perspective and your thoughts on the matter. I agree that the Royals could really use a productive Alex Gordon. And not to get off on a tangent, but devil_fingers pointed out to me that Alex Gordon was actually a 2.6 WAR player last year, and even a 2.1 WAR player in 2007 ... where as Billy Butler is just now getting to the 2.0 WAR level right now, even with his great offensive season. I'd take a 2.6 WAR season from Alex every year and be very happy with that. Would you take a 2.6 WAR Alex and be happy? Or would that be "patchy*"?

*quoted from Posnanski's Disco Hayes article

(then I go on to say nice things about his books and columns... all honest things but not pertinent to this post)

Joe Posnanski: Sure, if you would like to use my comments, that's fine.

As for the difference in WAR ... I think Devil Fingers is right in that WAR put in perspective that Gordon was better in many ways than people (including me) have suggested. But, let's not kid anybody: They were still patchy seasons. His rookie year he was all but useless for half a season -- I think (in retrospect) the Royals did him a disservice by rushing him to the big leagues and then letting him drown for three months. His positive WAR that year was based almost entirely on his position and his defense -- he was well below even third base average with the bat.

His second year, his defense took a significant step backward (so much so that several people in the game told me that he might have to move off third). And as of late June, he wasn't hitting much either. But on the positive side he did have a good final two months, and he showed real plate discipline for the first time, and I believed that this would be a breakout year for him. The injuries have prevented that from happening.

As for comparing him to Butler, I think their Wins Against Replacement is interesting but slightly misleading -- the fact they are close in WAR is almost entirely based on positional value. Butler is a far superior hitter to Gordon, but he's also a defensive challenged first baseman. And so he has to hit a TON in order to really be worth a lot more than a first base replacement. The thing is, he has given evidence this year (especially in the second half) that he will hit a ton.

Alex, meanwhile, has been inconsistent enough with the glove to make people wonder if he's a third baseman, and inconsistent enough with the bat to make people wonder if he can hit enough to help you at first or as a corner outfielder. Three years in, and I'm not sure anyone knows what Alex's role will be. If he can stay on third and hit well enough to give a team 2-3 WAR, that's fine. But it also makes him significantly less valuable than Ryan Zimmerman, who was the other third baseman the Royals were considering in that draft. It makes him about as valuable as Casey Blake, who was waived three times before finally hooking on with Cleveland. I think the Royals were hoping for a lot more.

So there you have it. Thanks again to Joe and to devil_fingers for their comments and thoughts.