*Jacobs has been sat against LHP (sometimes) and also hasn't seen his glove since week two. Kyle Farnsworth has been relegated to mop-up duty after blowing a sufficient number of games. HoRam was brought in to face a left-handed Zobrist during the Tuesday night Rays game.
I remembered there was a great blog post by the fine men at Royals Authority during the offseason titled, "What is a Reasonable Timeframe for Dayton Moore?". That post examined past AL Central franchises who've turned it around and looked at how many years it took their GMs to see the playoffs. To my surprise, the teams didn't always have a steady rise to success, but rather a bumpy one with up seasons and down seasons. So what was the fate of their respective managers? How long did they last? Did they make it through the tough seasons? I set out to find out.
Cleveland Indians (1992)
New GM: John Hart
New Manager: Mike Hargrove (1992-1999)
- ('92) Season 1: 76-86 4th Place AL East
- ('93) Season 2: 76-86 6th Place AL East
- ('94) Season 3: 66-47 2nd Place AL Central *
- ('95) Season 4: 100-44 1st Place AL Central
- ('96) Season 5: 99-62 1st Place AL Central
- ('97) Season 6: 86-75 1st Place AL Central
- ('98) Season 7: 89-73 1st Place AL Central
- ('99) Season 8: 99-65 1st Place AL Central
The key season here was the 1993 season, where the Indians made little progress from they year before. The Indians started off 26-40 and finished 50-46. However, they had failed to make the playoffs since 1954, so I'm sure there wasn't much pressure on the team. Hargrove persevered and made it to 1994, where his team of young guns (Lofton, Belle, Thome and Manny) really took off. From there it was a blessed existence.
Hargrove was let go (controversially) after his 8th season in 1999.
Cleveland Indians (2002)
New GM: Mark Shapiro
New Manager: Eric Wedge (2003-current)
- ('03) Season 1: 68-94 4th Place AL Central
- ('04) Season 2: 80-82 3rd Place AL Central
- ('05) Season 3: 93-69 2nd Place AL Central
- ('06) Season 4: 78-84 4th Place AL Central
- ('07) Season 5: 96-66 1st Place AL Central
- ('08) Season 6: 81-81 3rd Place AL Central
- ('09) Season 7: 22-32 5th Place AL Central*
Wedge was hired one year into Mark Shapiro's tenure. He enjoyed a steady climb each of his first three seasons as the reloaded Indians looked to dominate the AL Central like they did in the '90s. But his teams have been wildly inconsistent since, despite having massive amounts of talent on the roster (way more than what Trey Hillman has now). Might he get the can before Trey? 2009 will be a trying season for each skipper.
Minnesota Twins
New GM: Terry Ryan (1994)
Inherited Manager: Tom Kelly
New Manager: Ron Gardenhire (2002)
Tom Kelly
I'll save you the trouble -- from 1994-2001, their combined record was 542-686. I don't know how he kept his job that whole time... but he did. Not even (4) consecutive 90+ loss seasons (1997-2000) could earn him the can. He was let go, however, after winning 85 games in 2001.
Ron Gardenhire (2002 - Current)
- ('02) Season 1: 94-67 1st Place AL Central
- ('03) Season 2: 90-72 1st Place AL Central
- ('04) Season 3: 92-70 1st Place AL Central
- ('05) Season 4: 83-79 3rd Place AL Central
- ('06) Season 5: 96-66 1st Place AL Central
- ('07) Season 6: 79-83 3rd Place AL Central
- ('08) Season 7: 88-75 2nd Place AL Central
- ('09) Season 8: 26-27 2nd Place AL Central *
Gardy's led a pretty blessed life, too. He took over the team just in time for Morneau and Mauer to blossom. He's had only one losing season and doesn't appear in any danger of losing his job.
Detroit Tigers
New GM: Dave Dombrowski (2003)
New Managers: Alan Trammel (2003-2005) & Jim Leyland (2006-current)
Alan Trammel
- ('03) Season 1: 43-119 5th Place AL Central
- ('04) Season 2: 72-90 4th Place AL Central
- ('05) Season 3: 71-91 4th Place AL Central
Trammel was canned after failing to progress in his 3rd year at the helm.
Jim Leyland (2006 - current):
- ('06) Season 1: 95-67 2nd Place AL Central
- ('07) Season 2: 88-74 2nd Place AL Central
- ('08) Season 3: 74-88 5th Place AL Central
- ('09) Season 4: 28-22 1st Place AL Central*
Leyland's job was definitely on the line coming in to this season. But he seems to have harnessed the talent of his team as they are now the favorite to win the AL Central. Of course having a ton of $ doesn't hurt anything from a talent standpoint. Leyland certainly has more talent on his 25-man roster than Hillman will ever see.
Conclusion:
During each rebuilding effort in Cleveland, the first two seasons ended with sub-.500 records. The third year was key for both Hargove and Wedge.
The Tigers had a similar situation with a new manager hired AFTER the GM took power -- with Buddy Bell playing the role of Trammel and Hillman playing Leyland. But that comparison isn't fair because the Tigers went on a huge spending spree as they showed Trammel the door.
In '04, the Tigers payroll was $46.8 Million, good for 23rd highest in the majors*. They increased their payroll each of the next four seasons by an average of roughly $22 Million (each season!), finally culminating in the 3rd highest payroll in baseball for 2008 at $137.8 Million. Where would Trey Hillman and the Royals be if they increased payroll by $20 Million each off season?**
*the Royals were at $47.6 and #22
** Probably with 2 of the following: Dunn, Hudson, Furcal
For three of the rebuilding efforts, the 3rd season seemed to be do (Hargrove, Wedge) or die (Trammel). Both Hargrove and Wedge benefitted from a strong, homegrown wave of talent coming to the majors and making an impact by season 3. Trammel wasn't given much of a chance and Leyland reaped the benefit of a bloated payroll.
As for Hillman: If the team can finish within a few games of .500 (or even with an identical record as last year), there's no way he gets fired during or after season 2. His third season looks a little bleak, however. Gordon, Butler and Ka'aihue would all have to be healthy and above average on offense to give Hillman a chance of reaping the reward of a 4th season (ie. Hosmer and Moustakas). I'm still a fan of Butler and Gordon, but I'm not holding my breath.
I think Hillman get's canned during or after season 3 and a new guy comes in and instantly earns the praises of the fanbase for taking the Royals to the playoffs.
Hillman = Trammel.
2 comments:
Great post. I'd be interested to see what happened to other small-market teams around MLB when a new GM took over.
yeah, that might be a future post. I found the research for this post really interesting, so i'll try to tackle the other teams later.
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