The beginning of the season was a mirage.
That's what 'uscbalto' said in last night's game thread at Royals Review. Many others were expressing similar feelings as the Royals were down by 11 at one point in the 6th inning. Brian Bannister couldn't get an out and neither could Ponson as he gave up 4 ER while notching 1 out during the horrendus blowout.
Worse than the pitching having an off night was the continued non-existant offense. After starting 18-11, the Royals have now gone 5-14. Things are certainly bleak right now. Who knows... this could be just before 'the dawn' and daylight is looming. I'm of that opinion as I think this is simply a steep valley in a long season. But if this poor play continues GMDM will certainly consider making some roster moves as we get into trading season.
There are a few players who might draw interest from teams still in contention. Any move would certainly be for young, low-level prospects to compliment the up-and-coming Hosmer and Moustakas: Don't look for any big moves to bolster the big-leauge club for this season. So, just who might the Royals trade away?
Mike Jacobs - He's got grit and chewing tobacco to spare along with immeasurable power. We know his weaknesses -- namely not owning a glove big enough to play any position in the field. He could be a great addition to an AL club seeking some left-handed pop. The move would also make way for the Royals to call up Kila Ka'aihue and give him an every day shot at 1b/DH.
Miguel Olivo / John Buck - they are basically the same player, historically at least. This season Miguel seems to strike out every at-bat (on 2 pitches), so Buck may be having a slightly less bad year at the plate. But Olivo has the good arm to throw out baserunners. Either one could make a nice backup on a playoff contenter hurting for catchers. They'd likely net a PTBNL.. but that's fine. They Royals could finish off the year by calling up Brayan Peña.
Bullpen Arms (Mahay, Wright, HoRam*) - Wright was having a good run early in the year and he could net some low-level prospect from a contending team. Same for Mahay. The Royals have a few arms down in Triple-A that could easily slide and and maybe even upgrade the 'pen -- most notably a guy named Carlos Rosa.
*HoRam will never net the Royals anything... he's terrible and on the hook for a ton of money... sigh
Mark Teahen - He's having a decent season and has shown the ability to play adequate 3rd base along with the corner outfield spots. Could he be the poor man's Mark DeRosa? He might be able to net a decent mid-level prospect especially if the Indians get hot and DeRosa becomes unavailable. There's nobody ready in the minors to take over for Teahen, so who fills the hole at 3rd? Well there's this guy named Alex Gordon who's been on the DL since mid-April. Getting rid of Teahen really helps guys like Callaspo and Bloomquist or even Mitch Maier get more playing time.
David DeJesus - I don't think he'll get traded especially because the alternatives are Maier or Lubanski. But if he heats up he might draw some interest. If we're to trade him, I'd hope for a couple of prospects in return -- he's a decent every-day player, afterall. But again, this probably won't happen.
Wish List (Jose Guillen, Kyle Farnsworth) - Trading these guys is a pipe dream because of their huge salaries and (sub?) replacement-level play. Oh well. I wouldn't even want a prospect and I'd even offer to pay half of their remaining money. Even with that sweetened deal, no team would even come close pulling a deal for these guys.
Dark Horses (Gil Meche, Kyle Davies, Brian Bannister, Coco Crisp) - Trading away Meche would likely be part of a package and would net a huge haul of prospects or a major league ready guy and one or two low-level farmhands. Davies and Bannister... eh, maybe they get a major league ready guy, but probably not. If Coco finishes well, he could net a decent prospect haul or a pitcher.
I think the Royals will win 82 games this year, but I'm starting to lose my faith a bit. If I'm right, none of these moves happen. If I'm wrong, then these moves could start happening in early July when Gordon is set to return. Either way 2010 will be promising and 2011 should be special. That's not what I wanted to hear back when the Royals were 18-11, but that might be the reality.
Friday, May 29, 2009
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2 comments:
Nice thoughts, Colin, but can we please stop with the "Olivo and Buck are basically the same." Yes, Olivo has very good arm, and Buck's is very poor. But while Buck is no wizard at blocking pitches, a recent study shows that Olivo is one of the worst in the last 50 years.
Oh, and as far as Buck's bat being "slightly less bad" this year, currently, he's about 50 points of wOBA better than Olivo (Olivo's 0-4 tonight isn't figured in yet). Over a full season, that's about 25 runs.
So, unless you think that Olivo would lead to at least 125 less stolen bases this season, so far, they aren't even close to the same.
Nice post though, just had to get that off of my chest.
You're right, as usual. I was talking more in a historical sense -- you know, regarding their career numbers.
Olivo: .241/.274/.409 wOBA - .292
Buck: .234/.299/.401 wOBA - .303
And those numbers factor in this current season (even though it's not a huge sample size yet... i know).
So I know it's cliche to say they're the same except for the arm / blocking pitches skills, but their offensive numbers ARE fairly similar.
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