Opening Day is more than three weeks away, but after talking with (Tigers GM Dave) Dombrowski on Wednesday, I'm convinced that Porcello will make the team if he continues to outpitch high-priced lefties Dontrelle Willis and Nate Robertson, as well as everyone else wearing the Old English "D."
Porcello, 20, was the Tigers first round pick (No. 27 overall) in the 2007 draft. At the time, he was viewed as a great talent but he slid down to the Tigers because of signability issues. Last year Porcello pitched for the Tigers high-A minor league affiliate and did reasonably well in 125 innings. His prized sinker was effective as he only allowed 7 homeruns. But, as Rosenthal points out, Porcello didn't strike out enough people to think he can be very effective at the major league level.
One concern with Porcello is that he averaged a mere 5.2 strikeouts per nine innings at Class A Lakeland last season. CC Sabathia averaged 10.4 in nearly twice as many minor-league innings when he made the Indians' Opening Day rotation at age 20.
Rosenthal goes on to explain that it is unclear what the Tigers' motives are with Porcello -- are they genuinely concerned about his long term health or are they gambling to save their own jobs? After all, the Tigers have a $130M payroll and finished last in the AL Central in 2008.
-Royals Perspective-
As Royals fans, we know all about rushing players to the major leagues. The player most similar to Porcello is current Royals Ace-in-the-making Zack Greinke. He too spent just one full season in the minors. But Greinke's numbers were pretty sick:
| Zack Greinke 2003 | |||||||||||||||||||
| Team | W | L | IP | H | R | ER | BB | K | WHIP | ERA | |||||||||
| A+ | 11 | 1 | 87 | 56 | 16 | 11 | 13 | 78 | 0.79 | 1.14 | |||||||||
| AA | 4 | 3 | 53 | 58 | 20 | 19 | 5 | 24 | 1.19 | 3.23 | |||||||||
| Total | 15 | 4 | 140 | 114 | 36 | 30 | 18 | 112 | 0.94 | 1.93 | | ||||||||
22 years earlier, the Royals drafted (in the 19th round) a young high schooler named Bret Saberhagen and he spent just one year in the minors. Of course, he debuted in 1984 at the age of 20 and was the staff ace of the '85 World Series Champion Royals.
So, Porcello could make Dombrowski look like a genius if he keeps him on the roster for opening day. He could have a year like Greinke in '04 or Saberhagen in '84 and really get the Tigers fan base energized. He's already been pegged a future Ace and All-Star. If he's already outplaying some veterans, why not bring him up now?
My response is, "Why not keep him in the minors?" I know Detroit has been hit hard by the economy, I know the AL Central is up for grabs, I know Porcello has 'off the charts character and makeup", but what nobody knows is how he'll handle being in the majors. After Andrew Miller faltered, Dontrelle Willis failed to perform and Justin Verlander regressed, can the Tigers really afford to put Porcello under this much pressure this early? He'd essentially be tasked with saving the pitching staff.
In my unscientific opinion, I think most prospects flourish when they're not under pressure. Saberhagen, for instance, flourished while he was on a really good Royals staff. He was surrounded with other talents like young Gubicza, Danny Jackson and veterans like Leibrandt and Bud Black. He didn't need to come in and lead; just come in and do his best.
Zack Greinke, on the other hand, was on a pretty pathetic pitching staff where the ace was either Darrell May or Brian Anderson... or maybe Jimmy Gobble. Greinke performed exceptionally well but there was no pressure -- the team was going to lose over a 100 games whether he was there or not.
Maybe I'm wrong about Saberhagen, but I feel there was enough talent (or lack of talent in Greinke's case) surrounding both pitchers that expectations were fairly low in their age 20 season.
-historical perspective-
From a Tiger's standpoint, they do like to rush pitchers along as evidenced by the 2003 season when they started 20 yr old Jeremy Bonderman alongside Mike Maroth and Nate Cornejo. Bonderman, like Porcello, was a 1st round pick and spent just one season in the minors (high-A). Bonderman had decent numbers in his minor league season and also had 170 Ks in 157 IP. Obviously Bonderman had the ability to miss bats while Porcello has not shown that ability yet.
How did Bonderman turn out? Well... here's his ERA+ for each season:
2003: 77
2004: 91
2005: 92
2006: 112
2007: 91
2008: 104 (injury)
The average for his career? Oh, it's just 94. So, Bonderman has proven to be an underachiever for a 1st round pick. What impact did his first year have on him? He lost 19 games, gave up 24 homeruns and was generally left out to dry with the rest of his 119 loss team. Yikes.
There's no telling if Bonderman would've turned out better had he been shielded in the minors for another year. And it looks as though Porcello's 2009 Tigers have more talent than their 2003 counterparts. But what if Porcello goes to AA and develops a strikeout pitch? He'll keep his confidence and be ready for 2010. Wouldn't that be better for the Tigers and the AL Central in general?
One last bit from Ken Rosenthal:
If Dombrowski and Leyland determine that Porcello is the next Beckett, then they should not hesitate to commit to him. But shame on the Tigers if they rush Porcello because of restless management, and uncertain rotation or attendance desieres.
The proper development of Porcello should be the team's top priority.
I agree. I wonder if management is more concerned with their jobs than Porcello's career and the long term health of the franchise.
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Pitchers Age 19-21 as Rookies in Major League Starting Rotation
1980-2008
19 Dwight Gooden ERA+ 137
21 Kerry Wood ERA+ 128
21 Dontrelle Willis ERA+ 127
20 CC Sabathia ERA+ 102
21 Mark Gubicza ERA+ 100
21 Jim Abbott ERA+ 97
21 Juan Nieves ERA+ 88
20 Jeremy Bonderman ERA+ 77
21 Javier Vasquez ERA+ 69
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*Greinke would be #4 on this list but he only had 145 IP... his ERA+ was 120 at age 20.
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